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Ovum is forecasting a decline in the optical component FTTx PON revenue market in 2016 following the record level achieved in 2015, but revenue levels will improve in the later years of the forecast due to next-gen PON deployments.


  • While there are FTTx PON network builds in many countries, there is no single large deployment that will offset the expected decline in PON OC consumption as China’s networks approach maturity.
  • Forecasted next-gen PON ratios of ONT/ONU to OLT OCs are expected to be lower than existing ratios as PON’s usage for nonresidential applications increases.
  • Ovum anticipates that OC and equipment vendors are undertaking development efforts to significantly lower the costs of 10G and NG-PON2 OCs.

Features and Benefits

  • Analyzes next-gen PON OCs in detail, covering XG-PON1, XGS-PON, NG-PON2, 10/1 EPON, and 10/10 EPON.
  • Assesses the likely ratios of ONT/ONU transceivers/BOSAs to OLT transceivers for next-gen PON.
  • Analyzes the likely year-over-year declines in ASPs as development efforts lower the costs of next-gen PON OCs.

Key questions answered

  • What is the outlook for PON OCs? What happens after China?
  • How does next-gen PON influence the OC forecast? What are the ASPs likely to be? What are the likely ratios of ONT OCs to OLT OCs?
  • What is the comparison between XG-PON1 and XGS-PON in terms of forecasted OCs? When will NG-PON2 OCs start to ship?
  • What is happening with next-gen EPON? Will 10G symmetrical dominate?

Table of contents


  • Introduction
  • Download 1: OC FTTx Forecast Spreadsheet: 2015–21

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