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Introduction

This report is part of Ovum’s Digital Economy 2025 series. In this report, we discuss how the broadband business will change through 2025 and what CSPs should do to adapt to those changes.

Highlights

  • In 2025, broadband will be even more critical for the functioning of the digital economy. Together with the services and applications it delivers, broadband access will continue to transform lives, businesses, industries, and economies.
  • By 2025, we expect coverage of 100Mbps downstream speed to be widespread in most parts of the world, and there will be remarkable progress in gigabit coverage too. This trend will be aided by the completion of national broadband plans and by the evolution and deployment of several next-generation technologies – 10G PON, G.fast, DOCSIS 3.1, next-generation LTE, and 5G – pushing fiber deeper into networks.
  • In 2025, 5G will have widespread deployments but not necessarily widespread coverage. Mobile networks will finally have the ability to support speeds and latency that are comparable to high-speed fixed broadband per user, but coverage will still be limited in 2025 and will limit the extent of fixed-mobile substitution.

Features and Benefits

  • Analyzes emerging broadband trends today globally and discusses the likely impact by 2025.
  • Addresses the chances of fixed-mobile convergence and fixed-mobile substitution and how these trends are likely to evolve.
  • Examines emerging broadband access technologies and how service providers will use them.

Key questions answered

  • Does this report provide an outlook for broadband services evolution through 2025?
  • Does this report address how service providers and their bundling strategies, including broadband, will evolve through 2025?
  • Does this report address emerging broadband technologies?
  • Does this report address how fixed-mobile convergence and fixed-mobile substitution will evolve through 2025?

Table of contents

Summary

  • In brief
  • Ovum view
  • Recommendations

Broadband speeds will still matter in 2025

  • Speed the No. 1 reason to select a broadband service today and in 2025; best-efforts Internet will be dead
  • Raising of minimum broadband speeds via national broadband plans, but regulators may need to do more
  • Higher data usage and higher-speed tiers tied to economic growth
  • China has the potential to prove fiber business case in 2025
  • Macroeconomic factors will influence broadband access trends

Wider technology evolution will create demand for connectivity

  • Broadband technology evolution will provide higher levels of support

Fixed-mobile convergence

  • Convergence on many fronts: Networks, services, and CPE all to grow through 2025, but market opportunity will vary by region and over time
  • Developed markets to have higher converged market opportunity than developing

Fixed-mobile substitution

  • FMS to come from new demographic segments in developed countries

Market outlook: The $781bn broadband opportunity

  • New era of broadband applications
  • Enterprise connectivity requirements will change by 2025; widely dispersed workforce will need support

Evolution of broadband networks and technologies

  • Broadband networks will become more cost-effective and agile, enabling delivery of many more services
  • Next-generation fixed broadband upgrade cycles will be shorter, cheaper, and easier, leaving laggards behind
  • 5G deployments will be many, but LTE will remain a major factor in 2025
  • Fixed wireless access to plug digital divide

Broadband as part of a changing bundle

  • Video a driver of NGA upgrades in past decade and now
  • CSPs to concentrate on role as network and connectivity providers

Appendix

  • Methodology
  • Further reading
  • Author

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