The broadband access equipment market will remain strong in 2016 following a record-breaking 2015. Many positive factors contribute to Ovum’s forecast, including adoption of new access technologies (including next-gen PON, VDSL vectoring, G.fast, and DOCSIS 3.1), continued FTTH deployments in China, and increased bandwidth competition in the United States.
Broadband access equipment vendor revenues approached a forecasted $7.9bn in 2015, a record level representing a 29% increase over 2014. Ovum expects the 2016 market to decline slightly, by 4%, compared to 2015, with total revenues of $7.5bn. Over the longer term, broadband access equipment revenues are forecast to fall at a 2.5% CAGR from 2015 to 2021. The decline is driven by the maturing of FTTH network builds in China and the lack of major new network builds in heavily populated countries such as India.
PON equipment revenues continue to represent the largest segment within the broadband access equipment market throughout the forecast period. The Asia & Oceania region will remain dominant in this segment, although its share of global PON revenues will decline from 76% in 2015 to 66% in 2021 as PON deployments in North America accelerate. The adoption of next-gen PON will ramp over the forecast period: 15% of total PON OLT port shipments will be next-gen PON in 2021.
Total DSL revenues are expected to decline at a CAGR of more than 3% from 2015 to 2021. Within the DSL equipment category, G.fast should be adopted rapidly and will represent 22% of total DSL revenues by 2021 as operators embrace this new copper-based broadband solution. The EMEA region will continue to dominate the consumption of DSL equipment, representing 63% of DSL equipment revenues in 2015, increasing to 69% in 2021.
Total CMTS port revenues are forecast to decline at a CAGR of slightly more than 2% from 2015 to 2021. Adoption of DOCSIS 3.1 is beginning now and will represent over 75% of total CMTS revenues in 2021.
Broadband Access Equipment Forecast (PON, xDSL, CMTS): 2015–21, TE0006-001186 (February 2016)
Julie Kunstler, Principal Analyst, Components and Intelligent Networks
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