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Introduction

There has been recent speculation about the impact of 5G on the Australian fixed broadband market, but suggestions that 5G will make significant inroads into the fixed user base are highly premature.

Highlights

  • The lower cost of 5G data will make a mobile-only approach more attractive to consumers, all things being equal.
  • Ovum surveys show that 15% of telecommunications consumers currently don't use fixed broadband, but consumer willingness to consider a mobile-only approach remains confined to a subset of the market.
  • The rise of 5G requires fixed broadband operators (including the NBN) to respond to the investments being made by mobile operators with their own investments.

Features and Benefits

  • Estimates how long it will take to see national-scale 5G networks roll out in Australia.
  • Assesses the different drivers of fixed-to-mobile broadband substitution, and how substitution is likely to evolve in the medium to long term.

Key questions answered

  • When will Australian operators begin rolling out 5G, and how quickly?
  • How big is fixed fixed-to-mobile broadband substitution in Australia now, and how big might it become under 5G?

Table of contents

Summary

  • Catalyst
  • Ovum view
  • Key messages

5G rollout timetable and impact

  • 5G rollout drivers
  • Initial 5G rollout
  • Post-2020 rollout
  • Fixed broadband capacity will grow

The evolution of data demand

  • The Australian mobile-only consumer and their evolution
  • Trends in data demand

Long-term 5G development

  • Key 5G use cases
  • 5G will ultimately include massive IoT and slicing after 2020

Appendix

  • Author

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